Another Big Move: Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Again by 50 bps
The Bank of Canada did it again! On December 11th, they announced another significant cut to the overnight target rate, slashing it by 0.50%, bringing the rate down from 3.75% to 3.25%. This marks the second consecutive 50 bps cut following the October decision and reflects a clear shift away from a restrictive monetary policy away. For homeowners, prospective buyers, and anyone navigating the mortgage market, this is another game-changer.
What Does This Mean for You?
Variable Rate Mortgage Holders
For those with variable rate mortgages, you’ll notice some impactful changes:
Fixed Payment Variable Mortgages: If your payment is fixed, your payment remains unchanged. However, a greater portion of your payment will now go toward reducing your principal balance instead of paying interest. For example:
A $500,000 uninsured mortgage with a 30-year amortization and rate of Variable Prime - 0.56% had a rate of 5.89% before the October cut with a payment of $2962.48. $508 of which went to principal. After October's cut, $717 of that payment would go to principal, and after December's cut $925 is going towards the principal, effectively dropping your amortization from 30yrs to just under 24yrs.
Adjustable Rate Mortgages: Your payment will decrease with this rate cut to maintain your original amortization schedule. For the same mortgage, your payment drops to $2,650.60, with $613 now going to the principal. This adjustment provides immediate relief to your monthly budget.
** Some banks will allow ‘fixed payment’ variable mortgage holders to adjust their payments. If a lower payment aligns more with your goals than shorter amortization; chat with your mortgage broker or call your bank directly to check your options.
Fixed Rate Mortgage Holders
If you’re locked into a fixed rate, this cut won’t impact your payments directly. However, it might be worth revisiting your options if your term is nearing renewal or if breaking your mortgage to refinance at a lower rate could save you money. Consult with your mortgage broker to analyze potential penalties and savings.
Prospective Buyers
Going Fixed: Fixed rates aren’t directly impacted by these cuts as they follow bond yields. Influenced by recent domestic political uncertainties, such as the recent resignation of Canada's finance minister, and global economic concerns impacting investor sentiment, the bond yields have only seen very slight downward trends when compared to the Bank of Canada decisions . If fixed is your preference, lock in your rate now but keep on your mortgage broker to push for better rates once you're under contract.
Going Variable: Your purchasing power continues to grow as variable rates drop. This rate cut boosts borrowing capacity by another 4-5%. With more cuts potentially on the horizon, the trend is clear: Variable borrowers are in a strong position. But remember, as your buying power increases, so does everyone else’s. Acting now can help you beat the rush as sellers with listings that have sat over the holidays may be keen to move on to their next property.
Will There Be Another Cut on January 29th?
Looking ahead, the market is pricing a 60% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 40% chance of no cut at all, based on the forward contracts on the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) as of December 28th. Factors influencing this decision include:
Inflation Trends: Core inflation has been cooling but remains slightly above the Bank’s target range. Further cuts will depend on whether this trend continues.
Economic Growth: Recent GDP data suggests slowing growth, which supports further easing.
Global Influences: The Bank is also monitoring international monetary policies, particularly in the U.S., as well as global financial stability.
Should You Wait or Buy Now?
Every situation is unique, but here are some things to consider:
Ready to Buy: December and January are typically great times to be active as a buyer. This year inventory levels remain high, and many sellers are motivated. Acting now could give you a significant edge over spring competition.
Waiting for Another Cut: If your down payment or finances aren’t ready yet, there’s potential for rates to drop further. However, the spring market typically brings more competition and potentially higher home prices, offsetting the benefit of lower rates.
Mixing Fixed and Variable: Some buyers are opting for variable rates now and planning to lock into a fixed rate later in 2025. Discuss this strategy with your broker to ensure it aligns with your financial goals.
Let’s Build Your Plan Together
The recent rate cuts have reshaped the housing market landscape, creating opportunities for homeowners looking to make a move and buyers alike. Whether you're planning to buy your first home, upsize or downsize it’s crucial to have a tailored strategy with an advisor you can trust.
Reach out today to discuss your goals and take advantage of the changing market:
Email: kadelacasse@gmail.com
Call/Text: 604-401-9199
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